Pas de tempête immédiate en vue, mais les assureurs doivent profiter de l'accalmie pour renforcer la résilience de leur portefeuille. (en anglais uniquement)
- 17 janvier 2022 (10 minutes)
Key points
- Our central scenario remains positive for 2022
- The hunt for yield is still top of insurers’ agendas
- Inflation and interest rate uncertainty remain centre stage
- Insurers should consider enhancing diversification and risk management
- For many, 2022 will be a transition year from a regulatory perspective
- Sustainable investing should expand across all portfolios
Lingering COVID-19-related supply-side disruptions, alongside a significant rebound in consumer demand, are producing supply bottlenecks and an inflation rate not seen for decades. We expect 2022 to be a year of gradual absorption of the pandemic shock, with robust but less spectacular growth, while pressures on global supply gradually decline, contributing to a slowdown in inflation. A gradual convergence of ‘transitory’ inflation rates towards their target would allow central banks to remain prudent with the pace of monetary policy normalisation, making it digestible for investors as currently priced in to bond and equity markets.
This baseline outlook for 2022 is valid on the assumption that most economies continue to supress COVID-19 flare-ups and manage to remain open. It also presupposes a normalisation of the US employment participation rate in easing pressure on wages. There is still uncertainty on the impact of the pandemic on global economic trends, inflation dynamics, suggesting that investors should also plan for more adverse trajectories.
A worse outcome would be even higher inflation and a more aggressive than expected tightening of monetary policy. Additionally, a sharp rise in real yields would derail growth and earnings momentum and deliver a shock to bond and equity markets.
Transitory or not, inflation is back. Monetary policy is being adjusted while quantitative easing support is easing. In our central scenario, a modest increase in interest rates should allow investors to still enjoy decent returns, especially as they catch investment opportunities and follow capital flows allocated to the climate transition.
But market history shows that bouts of volatility are never far away. This has multiple implications for insurance companies, especially when considering the structure of their balance sheets and current developments in regulatory capital and accounting standards.
Disclaimer
This document is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment research or financial analysis relating to transactions in financial instruments as per MIF Directive (2014/65/EU), nor does it constitute on the part of AXA Investment Managers or its affiliated companies an offer to buy or sell any investments, products or services, and should not be considered as solicitation or investment, legal or tax advice, a recommendation for an investment strategy or a personalized recommendation to buy or sell securities.
It has been established on the basis of data, projections, forecasts, anticipations and hypothesis which are subjective. Its analysis and conclusions are the expression of an opinion, based on available data at a specific date.
All information in this document is established on data made public by official providers of economic and market statistics. AXA Investment Managers disclaims any and all liability relating to a decision based on or for reliance on this document. All exhibits included in this document, unless stated otherwise, are as of the publication date of this document.
Furthermore, due to the subjective nature of these opinions and analysis, these data, projections, forecasts, anticipations, hypothesis, etc. are not necessary used or followed by AXA IM’s portfolio management teams or its affiliates, who may act based on their own opinions. Any reproduction of this information, in whole or in part is, unless otherwise authorised by AXA IM, prohibited.
Avertissement sur les risques
La valeur des investissements, et les revenus qu'ils génèrent, sont sujets à des variations, ce qui peut engendrer une perte totale ou partielle du capital initialement investi.